Vulnerable Trades: Shop Floor Jobs Facing 'Imminent' Automation

A study by construction scheduling platform Planera identified which physical and manual jobs are most vulnerable to automation. The April 2026 report found that the production sector faces the greatest risk, with patternmakers most likely to lose their jobs.

The study analyzed over 55 physical and manual professions, with an emphasis on the trades, production, logistics, healthcare and service occupations. It considered factors like automation rate, current employment and its change and median annual salary to provide a reflection of the human cost of automation and the value of hands-on work.

Jobs Most Vulnerable to Automation

Metal and plastic patternmakers

• Occupation group: Production
• Occupation risk: 99% (imminent)
• Employment, 2024: 1,570 persons
• Median annual wage: $54.5K

The automation risk for patternmakers is set at 99% and categorized as an imminent change from human to a fully automated workforce. Currently, only 1,500 people are employed as metal and plastic patternmakers across the U.S., and their numbers are predicted to lower by 24.4% before 2034. Similar to other occupations on the list, the patternmakers’ salary is below the national average and brings them $54.5K annually.

Loading and Moving Machine Operators, Underground Mining

• Occupation group: Mining
• Occupation risk: 97% (imminent)
• Employment, 2024: 6,130 persons
• Median annual wage: $68.9K

While loading and moving machine operators are the only mining sector profession in the top 10, the whole industry was affected by automation and job cuts in the last few decades. Right now, the risk of automation sits at 97%, another ‘imminent’ workforce shift, according to industry predictions. Only 6,130 are employed as machine operators in underground mining, and these numbers will decrease by 22.3% in the upcoming years.

Milling and Planing Machine Setters, Operators and Tenders, Metal and Plastic

• Occupation group: Production
• Occupation risk: 91%
• Employment, 2024: 13,810 persons
• Median annual wage: $48.3K

In third place are milling and planing machine setters, who currently make only $48.3K annually. There are twice as many machine setters as underground mining machine operators, with 13.8K, 14.4% of whom risk losing their jobs in the decade to come. 

Graders and Sorters, Agricultural Products

• Occupation group: Agriculture
• Occupation risk: 89%
• Employment, 2024: 26,870 persons
• Median annual wage: $35.4K

Graders and sorters are the most vulnerable profession to automation in the agricultural sector, with 89% risk. It is also the second least-paid occupation in the top 10, bringing employees only $35.4K a year. Still, 26.8K people work as graders and sorters, while the number of jobs is projected to go down by 5.4% in the next few years.

Cashiers

Cashiers ranked fifth as an occupation with the largest employment. Currently, over 3.1 million people are working as cashiers across the U.S., but the risk of losing a job due to automation comes to 88%. It is also the profession with the lowest salary at $31.2K a year on average.

“The conversation about automation has been almost entirely focused on office workers and knowledge jobs, but the production floor is quietly going through an equally significant shift,” an automation expert from Planera stated. “Service and white-collar occupations are all comparatively likely to be displaced, yet manufacturing and production workers rarely feature in mainstream coverage. Patternmakers and machine operators don't make headlines the way software engineers do, but the people in these roles are facing some of the most immediate disruption in the entire job market.”

Other production jobs at risk

Click this link to view the full report findings.